Comparing the Performance of Monthly Poverty Measures
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the problem of using a once-per-year, annual poverty measure to make pressing policy decisions. This prompted researchers to develop methods to provide more timely estimates of poverty. This paper compares two monthly poverty measures—one developed by Parolin, Curran, Matsudaira, Waldfogel, and Wimer and the other by Han, Meyer, and Sullivan—to assess their performance relative to external benchmarks of material hardship and mental health challenges.
Estimating Monthly Poverty Rates in the United States
Official poverty estimates for the United States are presented annually and with a considerable lag. This study introduces a framework to produce monthly poverty estimates.
The EITC and the CTC Give Temporary Income Boost to Low-Income Families
Due to refundable tax credits, monthly poverty fell from 14.4% in February 2022 to 10.8% in March 2022, and for children from 16.7% to 9.9%.
Monthly Poverty Remains Elevated in February
Monthly poverty remained elevated in February 2022, with a 14.4 percent poverty rate for the total US population and 16.7 percent for children.
Absence of Monthly Child Tax Credit Leads to 3.7 Million More Children in Poverty in January 2022
Without the Child Tax Credit, the monthly child poverty rate increased from 12.1 percent in December 2021 to 17 percent in January 2022, the highest rate since the end of 2020.
Sixth Child Tax Credit Payment Kept 3.7 Million Children Out of Poverty in December
The sixth Child Tax Credit payment kept 3.7 million children from poverty in December. In absence of a January payment though, the monthly child poverty rate could potentially increase from 12.1 percent to at least 17.1 percent in early 2022—the highest monthly child poverty rate since December 2020.
November Child Tax Credit payment kept 3.8 million children from poverty
According to our latest projections, the expanded Child Tax Credit kept 3.8 million children from poverty with its fifth monthly payment in November 2021.
October Child Tax Credit payment kept 3.6 million children from poverty
According to our latest projections, the expanded Child Tax Credit kept 3.6 million children from poverty with its fourth monthly payment in October 2021.
Expanded Child Tax Credit continues to keep millions of children from poverty in September
According to our latest projections, the expanded Child Tax Credit kept 3.4 million children from poverty with its third monthly payment in September 2021.
Expanded Child Tax Credit Leads to Further Decline in Child Poverty Rates in August 2021
According to our latest projections, the child poverty rate declined from 11.9 percent in July 2021 (the month featuring the first CTC payment) to 11.5 percent in August 2021. Without the CTC, the monthly child poverty rate in August 2021 would have been 16.2 percent.
Monthly Poverty Rates among Children after Expansion of the Child Tax Credit
This policy brief discusses the estimated impact of the expanded Child Tax Credit on the monthly poverty rate for July 2021 in the United States. Monthly poverty fell from 15.8 percent in June to 11.9 percent in July, representing a decline of 3 million children living in poverty. This drop in child poverty is primarily due to the first payment of the expanded Child Tax Credit.
Monthly Poverty to Spike After Expiration of the CARES Act Unemployment Benefits
Using our monthly poverty framework, we find that a failure to extend two unemployment provisions of the CARES Act in December 2020 could see the number of individuals in poverty in January 2021 increase by 4.8 million.